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Consumer Price Index & Core CPI

Economics and Currency

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Leading/Coincident/Lagging: Coincident Economic Indicator
Type: Survey, Index (Above/Below Index Number)

Summary: The Consumer Price Index measures price changes in consumer goods. Consumer Price Index Finished Goods is a survey of the current price of all finished goods for sale available in the economy. This includes food and energy, which are affected by global price changes. Each month, Consumer Price Index surveyors ask households what they are paying for goods and compare those results to previous numbers. An increase in prices is seen inflationary. A decrease in prices in prices is seen as deflationary.

The Core Consumer Price Index is essentially the same concept as normal Consumer Price Indexes, but Core Price Indexes exclude those goods whose prices are driven primarily by global markets. This typically means excluding food and energy. Core CPI means the same thing as CPI Finished Goods, but Core CPI is precise at isolating the nation’s inflationary or deflationary levels.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)Change Versus Previous
As RGDP rises, CPI Rises.RGDP accelerates, CPI rises quicker.
As RGDP falls, CPI Falls.RGDP slows, CPI rises slower.
As CPI rises, Inflation Rises.CPI accelerates, Inflation rises quicker.
As CPI falls, Inflation Falls.CPI slows, Inflation rises slower.
If CPI is too High, Central Bank likely to…Hyperinflation Risks, so raise Interest Rate.
If CPI is too Low, Central Bank likely to…Deflation Risks, so lower Interest Rate.
All information is general, not absolute. Invest using total economy, not one indicator.
RGDP = Real Gross Domestic Product

Impact on Local Currency: Assuming all else equal, a rise in the Consumer Price Index level above expectations, will harm a currency’s value indicating inflation above expectations. A rise in the Consumer Price Index level below market expectations will likely strengthen currency values since inflation is lower than expected. A decrease in the Consumer Price Index level will likely strengthen currency values since it indicates disinflation or deflation.

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