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Unemployment Rate

Economics and Currency

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Leading/Coincident/Lagging: Mixed Economic Indicator
Type: Rate

Summary: The employment rate is the amount of working-age persons who currently have jobs. The unemployment rate is the amount of working-age persons without jobs. Employment rates may have other requirements and restrictions such as the last time people looked for a job. Employment rates have a mixed leading and lagging element. When businesses believe that a recession is coming, they prepare for the downturn by laying off workers. Layoffs are frequent heading into recessions, so unemployment is said to lead GDP in downturns. During recoveries, businesses prefer to avoid raising costs until they have passed the worst of the downturn.

Unemployment (UEMP)Change Versus Previous
As UEMP falls, RGDP Rises.UEMP falls faster, GDP rises quicker.
As UEMP rises, RGDP Falls.UEMP falls slower, GDP rises slower.
As UEMP falls, Inflation Rises.UEMP falls faster, Inflation rises quicker.
As UEMP rises, Inflation Falls.UEMP falls slower, Inflation rises slower.
If UEMP is very low, Central Bank likely to…Hyperinflation Risks, so raise Interest Rate.
If UEMP is very high, Central Bank likely to…Deflation Risks, so lower Interest Rate.
All information is general, not absolute. Invest using total economy, not one indicator.
RGDP = Real GDP

Impact on Local Currency: Decreases in the employment rate indicate instability in the labor market. Since labor decreases when there is contraction or fear of contraction, investors will begin to reduce risk or short sell the local currency when a trend develops and currency value will fall. If employment is rising, it will encourage investors thinking of buying the currency by confirming the economic uptrend.

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